El post de los COCHES (térmicos, eléctricos, hibridos)

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well welcome to a new Harry's Garage
video and this video is going to just
look at what is happening in today's car
market here in the UK Europe and a
little touch on what's happening in the
rest of the world as well because it's
in turmoil I have been involved in
within the industry for many years I've
never seen as much confusion in the
market as we've got now and the amount
of sort of announcements coming from
manufacturers changing direction so in
this video I'm going to I'm going to
look at that I'm going to look at why
we're in this mess um what we need to do
to get out of it and where I think the
car market is going to head over the
next few years so let's have a look at
some of those manufacturer announcements
well those was kickoff with lotus they
were them the first to announce it was
back in November and they were on this
path to going all electric that's what
all the publicity all the marketing have
been they had the electr the mirror and
the Ava this electric superc car that no
one has seen outside he and that was the
direction of travel suddenly no November
they said we not so sure this is working
and the sales have been really quite low
of their electric cars mirror has been
slow as well and they're having a
complete reefing as I understand they
talk about super hybrid cars so you're
going to get hybrid or range extenders
in the electric We're still wai and see
so they were the first to jump and with
an announcement Volvo no longer all
electric by 2030 they're seeing the
growing demand in plug-in hybrids
they're going to investigate that put
engines back into their electric Volvos
BMW recently announced that their V8 is
going to live on indefinitely was the
term they use in for the USA and Middle
Eastern markets they BMW being quite
clever because they're betting on
everything obviously got electric range
but they got plug-in hybrids and they
got performance cars the M cars as well
so they're just betting on everything
and doing okay from it Bentley yeah
there another one who has planned to go
all electric by 2030 not anymore they've
canceled that plan and they are dusting
off their internal combustion engine
development again they think there's one
or two generations still to go that was
not the thinking not very long ago Audi
yeah they're stopping production of the
Q8 rron and sportback rron due to
segment specific intensified drop in
demand it's this sudden stop in sales of
the premium EVS that's really hitting
these premium manufacturers um Porsche
in particular I mean it's poor old take
on is a bit of a flagship for nightmare
sales but they have 40% down in 2024 as
were others so it's just unfortunate
that Porsche is the one that seems to
get the headlines but they're also about
to introduce that electric boxer in
Cayman and I'm hearing that delay as
well now and heads might roll because of
the nightmare they're having they
dropping profitability they used to have
margins over 20% 21 22% they're now
thinking about 10 12% still profitable
but nothing like as profer as they once
were and I I saw an article in car
magazine by George kaker and he was
saying that the electric bster in Cayman
might have to have a selling price of
around $130
,000 due to the significant spend on the
budget development budget to get it to
this point Audi have backed out they
doing a c segment that potentially off
it as well that apparently is been
knocked on the head as well so poor
Porter having an utter nightmare because
they jumped very early into electric and
then finally Aston Martin they're
delaying their first EV by at least 3
years 2030 at the earliest and are going
hybrid with a number of models coming so
what's going on why are all these
premium manufacturers pulling out of
electric and is there still life in
electric going forward there most
certainly is but first of all I think
you just I think it's worthwhile at this
point just looking back to why this all
happened in the first place how do we
get in this mess now a quick bit of
background to how we ended up with this
big electric car Revolution happening
and you have to wind all the way back to
dieselgate and vw's Nightmare in the US
I was at Evo magazine obviously in the
20091 period and during that time VW
were just could do no wrong and diesel
in Europe was huge and they felt there
was an opportunity here to get diesel
into America around that time we used to
go to like Los Angeles Motor Show and if
you're invited by VW moved around these
Pat diesels in Los Angeles and they're
talking about how much range these cars
got how much performance they had and
yeah they were really pushing to get
diesel not only in Europe but in America
as well California quite rightly really
looking back said H we don't like the
emissions you get from diesels you're
going to have to reduce the nox nitrogen
oxide right down per us to even consider
and they put some standards out and VW
were determined to carry on getting the
diesel into
America ad blue hadn't really come on
the scenes it was in the backgrounds
Engineers who was working on development
and stuff they thought they looked to
add blue and the trouble they had was
one there was a royalty to pay on it and
two because the cars already existed and
they didn't need it in Europe there was
nowhere to package the big tank for the
ad blue as we do now to inject to the
engine so they thought there must be
another way and they thought they could
do it by clever engine management and we
all know what happened then and it
didn't work got discovered
2015 and O flip the world imploded on
diesel and the EU Regulators at the time
took a pretty dim view on this and
thought we're going to sharpen our app
there's California they've discovered
that VW is cheating we should have
discovered they were cheating as well
but they didn't and they came out with a
new engine raised to aim at which was
really tough to pass and it was called
Euro 7 and we're about 2016 2017 at this
point and behind the scenes were
manufacturers they look at Euro 7 they'd
had dieselgate so they weren't going to
fight it because they thought oh God
we're in really TR big trouble here can
we do this Euro 7 and it basically was
going to Outlaw diesel it's going to be
very hard to get a diesel car through
euro 7 and even with petrol cars it was
going to cost an absolute fortune and
they at the same time we had Tesla with
model 3 just cars everywhere couldn't
sell them fast enough huge profitability
valuation on the company was huge and
they always said do you know what
instead of doing Euro 7 why don't we go
electric and so electric cars behind the
scenes started to be developed the
manufacturers really started invest in
it to take on Tesla basically but also
they realized that these Euro 7 engine
ranks were almost un passible with
current Tech and they delayed they asked
for delay because they're going to have
to do so much to work then covid
happened and they got a further delay
and over time it's been delayed so much
they got different end rate euro 6 um d
and e as we're in now and no Euro 7 so
somehow internal combustion enges
actually just carried on a bit longer
than anyone expected back in 20178 EUR 7
was meant to be in by 2020 never
happened the electric cars came to the
market and what has happened is they
didn't quite live up to expectations for
a lot of Premium customers now it's a
different I'm going to I'm not knocking
electric here because I think this is
going to be a great year for electric
and we really like electric but those
early
cars were a bit too early into the
market we didn't know what to expect but
we all like new shiny things and we all
bought them and then the value of them
plummeted comes second hand no one
really wanted them because they made
sense as a business purchase and they
basically got TI of a bad brush the
premium electric
cars and we went off them a bit also at
that point cars like this were being
developed plugin hybrid and this is a
range sport 460e I will do be doing a
report on this is our general car at the
moment I came out of diesel got into
this and these have much more electric
range than they ever used to in the past
so this can easily do 50 miles it will
probably do 60 plus when the summer
comes but in the colder climates 50
something completely changes how many
miles you get on one charge and a lot of
people including me went those early
electric cars not sure about this at all
got into these and we've discovered
since running this car over the last few
months we're doing around 75% of our
total marage on pure electric and it's
just fantastic we've none of the
downsides no outside charging issues all
works extremely well and the more we
adopt these the less inclined we are to
have another go at electric and the
manufacturers are realizing this as well
and that is a big change and I think why
the premium manufacturers are just
delaying the introduction of pure
Electric because the earlier doctors a
lot of us were put off by those early
cars and a bit of a nightmare experience
we all had this is not knocking electric
there are for some people it's
absolutely the right thing to go and I
enjoy electric motoring which is why I
so enjoy this came out of the diesel
Range Rover Sport because I just miss
that smoothness that ease of Motoring on
pure electric that I get with this and
being a plug I can still tow with it I
can do everything I want to and do high
marage and to me it's a fantastic answer
so that is background to what happened
and the reasons for this sort of delay
and why people are all relooking at
their electric introduction across the
range now I think 2025 is not only about
the big plug-in hybrids like those with
increased range I think it will also be
about small cars and I had that Renault
R5 in recently and I absolutely loved it
that I think is the area of the market
for electric that is really going to
take off over the next year or two and a
few of you said well I like the Renault
R5 well why can't we have a proper
engine in it like the our Cleo trophy
2005 this car and huge fund 182
horsepower obviously and you get about
40 MPG out of it so why can't they
Renault Just Produce that now it's a
European market it's not just UK so I'm
going to look at what's happening in
France and they have a tax on co2 and
they've also recently introduced a
weight tax as well fortunately this
thing's just over a ton so forget about
the weight of it but the emissions on
this car are 194 G and it was about
155,000 new in 2005 so put in the
calculator it's £6,000 I'm going to go
to euros just which will make sense in a
moment it's about
32,000 was be the price how much tax do
you think you would have to pay on this
car if this was sitting in a Renault
showroom in 2025 the answer is
€70,000 because it's 194 gam is the most
tax class is over 193 Grand so this is a
€1,000 Euro Car in today's money were
Renault mad enough to put it on the full
car so you'd have this at 100,000 and
you'd have the new Renault R5 Electric
sitting there for about 26,000 which one
are you going to buy I suggest you're
going to buy the electric one so I'm
afraid these cars are just aren't
happening ever again same story I
suppose with the Jaguar I mean I bought
the project 8 because yeah being
interested in what's happening in
Industry I just thought they're never
ever going to produce a car like this
ever again I could see what was
happening all these euro6 all the
catalyst so the this hasn't even got
particular filters in the exhaust is
utterly wild and yeah they're never
going to produce cars like this again
just like the r just couldn't if it
would be Madness because of the tax
situation so you've got that car as I
say €100,000 in France you're going to
buy it if you went into your dealership
and saw Range Rover I've got another
example I got the I think it's a d250 if
you bought a a Defender d250 110 there
about 65,000 in the UK the tax on that
car would also be 70,000 in France but
this weight tax every kilo over 1,600
kilos you pay a
€1 tax on it every kilo over 2,100 kilos
you pay
€30 tax on every kilo so not only do you
have the
€70,000 Euro um CO2 tax on your Defender
you have £
11,000 um tax for the weight of it so
£81,000
worth of tax to pay if you want to buy a
diesel d250 or petrol straight Defender
if you buy the hybrid version like this
no tax to pay no weight penalty to pay
you can guess what everyone's buying
they're buying hybrid and that's why
like I had that M5 in the garage
recently everybody complaining about the
weight that's crazy that has an
emissions I think of 37 there is no tax
to pay and a lot of Europe is like that
it's weird in the UK the tax we would
pay on a nonhybrid car is about 5,700 I
think it is in Europe it is massively
higher than we have in the UK and I
think that's a bit of a worry CU I think
this government they want to encourage
electric car sales one way they could do
it is dramatically increase the car tax
we pay annually or on when you buy the
car in particular over the next few
years it just seems a way to encourage
us to get a go towards electric so
looking at the car market in 2025 I
think it will be pretty healthy for
electric cars cars like the Renault R5
there's the little Panda Grand Panda
coming there's and there's all the
Chinese competitors coming in the bids
all that sub segment A and B segment as
it's termed in this trade there that is
where all the electric car sales are
going to come from in my view they make
absolute sense they're affordable you're
not going to have the nightmare
depreciation that you get on the big
premium electric cars and you haven't
got all the weight and bulk to have to
deal with so the range is better and the
cost isn't so bad they're just afford
they just make
sense you know looking at the market I
just can't understand what Jagger are
thinking producing their premium C
in today's market I can't think of a
worst segment to be launching into but
anyway Jager must know something I don't
and maybe with a new tech from 2030 it
might make a more sense but right here
in 2025 just seems Madness to me what
they're doing the only thing I haven't
mentioned in all of this is what is the
UK government up to and
unfortunately that is a major concern
because to the UK government this even
though I'm doing 75% of my mileage on
electric is the devil's work they have
not defined what a hybrid is and this
zero emission mandate that all
manufacturers have to meet in the UK
that is just as bad as if I bought a
Chiron or a Porsche GT3 it's a thing of
evil because it's rated at 17 Gams of
CO2 per kilometer and the zero emission
mandate only deals with zero emission
cut so you even if you got an incredibly
efficient hybrid no not allowed that is
as bad as buying a highly poluting car
that is madness that has to change the
government has to get its head round
that hybrid make a huge amount of sense
for an awful lot of people now the other
thing that worries me is pure electric
from 2030 I think at the emotional end
of the market the pure Electric just
doesn't do it there is going to be an
element of combustion power for a lot
longer than people realize especially
from five years ago you got to remember
the zero emission mandate was a Boris
Johnson idea so we're talking 2020 when
that was introduced and it's been there
but the customer is not on the same
Journey as the government the government
just put these lines say oh 2030 that
that's when that we've got to do that
for what reason well it seems to be sort
of bragging rights that they got there
first it doesn't matter in the great
scheme of things we're in a global
Waring the clues in the name it's a
global issue it's not a UK issue and the
government I think have got to step back
and just have a reality check that we're
all in this together and being number
one in this race that's killing the car
industry is no good to anyone it's going
to destroy the income you generate of
the government from tax
the employment how many people are going
to be made unemployed just because of
this race for this arbitrary Line in the
Sand utter Madness so they've got to get
the head around that and two I don't
think we're going to reach 100% electric
for an awful long time I think sales of
new cars are fortunately are going to
continue to fall I think we're going to
be slower to change our cars but pure
electric for everyone 100% can't see it
by
2035 I think it will be
2050 that sort of date before we
actually see it because the rest of the
world isn't taking part you might have
noticed there's been a change of pres in
the US just look at the change of
attitude there a huge number of
countries in the world who are just not
taking part India Far East Japan
Americas they're not doing it and that
is why these manufacturers going back in
internal combustion engine production
because they are World play players and
concentrating on just Europe and UK
where we have these rules it doesn't
make sense for their business and I
think we've also got Bier resistance
because they didn't like the experience
in 2020 when they the early adopters and
as's a lot of people who just don't like
being told what to do when they know it
doesn't make sense if you got Germany
and it's it's quite dirty electricity
they produce and they all go to Electric
for CO2 hang on a minute and we're
killing our car industry that is is
going to change so I think we going to
see change both in regulations both in
um Europe and hopefully in the UK and
there is this consultation going on at
the moment that ends at the end of this
month with the industry saying this
doesn't work we we are not on the same
Journey as the customer something has to
change I do hope they um make sense of
that and they actually have a reality
check and realize that electric is not
for everyone it's a bit like you know
never going to get the whole country to
go vegetarian because we don't want meat
production because it produces meane
this isn't going to happen so I think
the same thing in the carenity electric
is not for everyone but it's really good
on those small cars one other thing
actually just with the Chinese
manufacturers coming in they can sell
their cars cheap but they can because
they've got a credit if you like they've
sold one electric car and they're pure
electric manufacturer they'll be able to
sell that credit to manufacturers who
aren't hitting their zero emission
mandate and that is worth a lot more
than probably the margin they get on
selling a car car it's how Tesla make a
lot of money in the UK by I understand
selling to companies like Jack or
landros they can sell V8 range R things
and be able to meet their zero emission
mandate by doing that those Chinese
manufacturers are very clever they know
that too and they'll get 45,000 for
selling one electric car in the UK
anyway that's all for the future there a
little debrief into what is happening in
the car market I hope you enjoyed that
if you did well keep watching keep
subscribing more videos coming along
very soon

In this video, Harry discusses the current turmoil in the car market, particularly focusing on the UK and Europe, with some global context. He highlights the confusion and rapid changes in direction from major manufacturers regarding electric vehicles (EVs). Initially, many brands like Lotus, Volvo, Bentley, and Audi committed to going all-electric by 2030, but recent announcements show a shift away from this goal. Sales of premium EVs have been disappointing, leading companies to reconsider their strategies. For example, Lotus is now focusing on hybrid models, Volvo is exploring plug-in hybrids, and Bentley has resumed internal combustion engine (ICE) development. Porsche is also facing challenges with declining sales and profitability of its EVs, while Aston Martin has delayed its first EV by at least three years.

Harry explains that this shift is partly due to the poor reception of early EVs, which suffered from high depreciation and limited appeal to premium customers. Plug-in hybrids, like the Range Rover Sport P460e, have gained popularity as they offer a balance of electric and ICE capabilities, making them more practical for many consumers. He also notes that small, affordable EVs, such as the Renault 5, are likely to dominate the market in the coming years, as they make more sense for urban use and avoid the high costs and weight of larger EVs.

The video also touches on the regulatory landscape, particularly the impact of emissions standards like Euro 7, which were initially expected to phase out ICE vehicles but have been delayed. Harry criticizes the UK government's zero-emission mandate, which he argues unfairly penalizes hybrids and could harm the car industry. He believes that a global approach to emissions reduction is needed, as many countries, including the US and India, are not following the same path as Europe.

In conclusion, Harry predicts that the car market will see a mix of EVs, hybrids, and ICE vehicles for the foreseeable future, with small EVs leading the charge. He calls for a more realistic and flexible approach from governments to support the transition to cleaner vehicles without damaging the industry.